The National Bureau of Statistics released semi-annual data on China’s economy, and it should be said that the economy as a whole is still tending to continue to recover. The economic growth for the first half of the year was 5 percent, which was basically within the overall target. However, the data was lower than market expectations, and downward pressure on the entire economy remains.

The market usually says that China’s economic operation is “insufficient effective demand”, I think we have to find out the source of this “insufficient effective demand” mainly in what places, in which areas there is greater pressure, and in which aspects may perform well? For example, in the data released this time, the production investment data of the manufacturing industry are good, and the growth rate of manufacturing investment has reached 9.5%, and it has been for some time. In terms of fixed investment, the investment in fixed assets in the first half of the year was 245391 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, and if real estate investment is deducted, the growth rate of fixed asset investment should reach 8.5%, which is also very good.

The current real estate market has seen a continuous deep adjustment. It should be said that real estate is of obvious importance to the entire Chinese economy. For example, there was a “456” reference before, that is, 40% of the current bank loans are in the real estate sector, 50% of the income of local governments is related to real estate, and more than 60% of the property owned by residents themselves is real estate. Real estate has a profound impact on people’s investment, consumption, finance, employment, income, and even financial management and capital markets. In the first half of the year, the real estate downturn dragged down the growth rate of investment by 4 percentage points, the growth rate of social zero by 4.7 percentage points, and the growth rate of nominal GDP by 1.5 percentage points.

From the perspective of consumption, we can also see the impact of the downward trend in real estate, because buying a house itself is a consumption behavior, and a house is the largest durable consumer product. If this consumption behavior is realized, then there will be a series of derivative consumption, such as home decoration and furniture, household appliances, textiles and clothing, etc., which is very different from other situations where consumption ends at one time. There is also financial data, and the weak performance of development loans and mortgage loans in credit has a lot to do with real estate.

Nowadays, many relevant policies have been introduced for investment and consumption. The central government has issued ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, as well as local government special bonds, all of which have produced certain results, and the next step may not be small. At the same time, it is accompanied by a large number of projects, so I don’t think there is much of a problem in promoting the growth rate of infrastructure construction investment to a relatively high level.

However, we should also pay attention to the effects that can be produced after the investment of these resources, and we need to pay special attention to grasp the key points and key points, and judge which areas are weak. The central authorities have also been mentioning the policy of taking measures against the weak links in economic operation. Therefore, from the perspective of the importance and pressure of real estate, the future policy focus and resource focus should be on real estate, and there should be a series of more vigorous and targeted measures to promote the operation of the short-term market to gradually stabilize. If it can promote the stabilization of real estate and a moderate recovery to a certain extent, then it should be said to be a more important and positive signal for the operation of the entire economy.

Since the beginning of this year, the policy measures in real estate have been not small, and a number of batches have been launched last year and the year before last, and the intensity after May this year is relatively greater. Recently, from the perspective of the market situation, the sales situation has seen some phased improvement. There is an opinion that “the market has a small pulse”, and although it does not last long, I think the market is not without demand. In the last three or four years, sales have shrunk sharply, and the volume of transactions has not been well released; And after a long period of accumulation, demand always needs to be released.

At present, buyers who have demand are also afraid of buying at the high price of housing prices, and some people are worried that real estate companies will not be able to pay the house after buying a house, so many people are particularly careful and have a strong willingness to wait and see. Therefore, at present, I think there is still a need for more vigorous and targeted policy measures to promote it, and the suggestions are as follows:

The first is to start from the demand side, whether it is possible to further reduce the interest rate of the first home mortgage loan in the short term, further reduce the cost of buying a house, so that buyers realize that the current interest rate is low enough. After a long period of decline, the level of market interest rates has fallen significantly. However, considering that the overall interest rate policy is relatively cautious, because it involves capital flows, exchange rates and other factors, and is relatively complex, the central bank does not want to significantly reduce the RMB interest rate. However, I think that it can still be further promoted by the real estate mortgage loan interest rate alone, so that buyers are more willing to release the demand for home purchases.

It is also possible to consider making the significant reduction of the short- and medium-term interest rate level a phased phenomenon, that is, if home buyers can realize that if they do not buy a house now, it may not be such a low interest rate level in a year and a half, then home buyers may be more willing to release demand at present.

At present, some second-tier cities, and even some key second-tier cities, still have many relevant restrictions on home purchases. Because for a long time, in order to regulate the real estate market, many related policies have been introduced, many of which are restrictive measures, and in some cities, this policy has not been completely abolished. Therefore, local governments should sort out again, and the purchase restrictions that should be canceled should be canceled, except for a few very few cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, etc., which can allow some restrictive measures, and the others can be relaxed. Because the central government has also set the tone, the overall supply and demand relationship in the real estate market has changed a lot, and the simple explanation is that the overall supply has exceeded demand.

On the supply side, it is necessary to increase efforts to support real estate companies, and if real estate companies are at risk, they will also bring risks to home buyers and financial markets. Therefore, it is necessary to support real estate companies in terms of liquidity first, which will help keep the market running smoothly.

Secondly, it is necessary to increase supply in first-tier cities, because the relationship between supply and demand in first-tier cities is still tight. For example, the recent data in Shanghai seems to be good, the transaction volume and price of new and second-hand houses are rising, indicating that the demand is released more obviously, and at this time, it is necessary to increase supply and increase the overall transaction volume. If the volume goes up, it will bring confidence to the whole market. At the same time, the operating conditions of some leading real estate companies will also improve after passing a certain scale of sales, which will also help to better play the stabilizing factors of the market on the supply side and promote the stabilization of the real estate market.

Finally, one suggestion is that the establishment of a real estate stabilization fund should be considered in view of the mega real estate market like China and its importance in the Chinese economy. This fund can not only support the entire industry, but also regulate the risks in the industry well and build confidence in the market; It can also take into account the bank’s management and disposal of relevant non-performing assets. I think that in the long run, it is more important to give the market more stable confidence, and the real estate stabilization fund is such an important means of support.